No floods reported over weekend, but they’re expected soon in the burn zones

Residents in northern New Mexico are preparing for floods and solidifying evacuation plans, but so far, no floods have been reported.

There is a flood watch for Mora County and San Miguel County around the Hermits Peak-Calf Canyon fire for Tuesday. This doesn’t mean it will flood, but it is possible, according to the National Weather Service.

Niki Carpenter, spokesperson with Southwest Area Incident Management Team 5 for the Hermits Peak-Calf Canyon Fire, said the weather may “dump higher volumes of water in one location through a sustained period of time,” which can cause flooding.

The Hermits Peak-Calf Canyon Fire is still listed as being at 72% containment, as it has been for the last five days, and Carpenter said this is mainly due to a delay in land assessment because of time and risk factors. She said containment numbers will probably go up soon, but a lot of the area has been inaccessible because of the weather.

“They don’t want to increase the number without being 100% positive,” she said.

The area of concern right now is around Pecos River and Hamilton Mesa Trail, where the fire burned into wilderness and larger fuels have a harder time absorbing humidity and rain, she said.

Over the weekend, the Hermits Peak-Calf Canyon fire received anywhere from one-quarter inch of rain to three-quarters of an inch, depending on location, noted meteorologist Andrew Gorelow with the National Weather Service. He said the rain was “slow and steady,” as opposed to the quick bursts of a lot of rain that can cause floods, but that may change in the coming days.

Flood watch ongoing for Black Fire region

No flooding has been reported in southern New Mexico near the Black Fire yet, said Stefan La-Sky, spokesperson with the team in command of the fire. There is a flood watch until Wednesday morning.

He said minimal rain reached the wildfire over the weekend, but humidity overnight helped with containment and allowed firefighters to cease night shifts. He expects increased containment in the coming days.

The amount of water in the atmosphere around the Black Fire could hit record levels later in the week, said Gary Zell, National Weather Service meteorologist.

“The atmosphere is loaded with moisture and any thunderstorm … now that we’ve had some precipitation on the fire, it can definitely cause flash flooding,” Zell said.

Crews fighting the Black Fire have shifted from full suppression efforts to repair with tasks like cleaning up fire lines and picking up brush from limbs and trees, La-Sky said. 

With expectation for increased rain over the next few days, firefighters are cautious of areas that could flash flood, La-Sky said.

The Black Fire area saw a range of precipitation in various areas over the weekend, Zell said, from one-quarter of an inch to an inch and a half in some parts. But a lot of it missed the fire, La-Sky noted.